Export Insights – September 2026
Half-year figures for Export Credit Guarantees 2026: German exporters are increasingly turning to export cover
Geopolitical tensions, volatile markets and economic uncertainties remain among the greatest challenges facing German exporters and are making it difficult in many places to plan international business. At the same time, the figures for the first half of 2026 show strong demand for covering solutions and a project pipeline that remains robust. This demonstrates that companies remain keen to capitalise on opportunities abroad and are increasingly relying on the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees.
Coverage volume grows significantly
In the first half of 2026, the Federal Government underwrote export credit guarantees totalling 10.2 billion euros. Compared with the same period last year (7.4 billion euros), this represents an increase of 37.4 per cent. Individual cover business remained the most important pillar of new business, reaching a volume of 6.7 billion euros, with large-volume individual cover deals being the main driver of this increase. Group cover business stands at 3.5 billion euros and has been rising steadily since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Norway tops the country ranking
A look at the target countries shows just how diverse the areas of application for export credit guarantees are. In the ranking of the most important recipient countries, Norway, France and Türkiye lead the way, followed by Algeria and Ukraine. Large-volume transactions were the decisive factor in Norway and France’s top positions. The ranking illustrates that export credit guarantees support companies both in established European markets and in countries with heightened political and economic risks.
High demand and a strong pipeline
Demand for export credit guarantees remains very high. The total value of applications and in-principle commitments rose to 48.5 billion euros in the first half of 2026, representing a 12.5 per cent increase on the previous year’s figure. This strong pipeline indicates that numerous companies are planning new export projects for the coming months and years. For many exporters, export credit guarantees are a key component in securing financing partners and establishing a reliable foundation for business in challenging markets.
Risks remain elevated, half-year results positive
At the same time, the risk situation in the portfolio developed positively. The indemnity risk fell to 77.3 billion euros, which was around 8.0 per cent below the previous year’s level. The largest country exposures continue to be in Türkiye, the USA and Angola. Indemnity payments fell to 94.7 million euros in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, the risk environment remains challenging. The volume of claims-related business rose to 589 million euros and is characterised by a few large exposures. Claims payouts are therefore expected to remain at an elevated level for the second half of the year.
Overall, the half-year results are positive. The balance of income and expenditure stands at 51 million euros. Above all, however, the figures show that German companies continue to focus on foreign markets despite a challenging international environment. For established users of export credit guarantees, this confirms the benefits of the instrument. At the same time, this trend illustrates that even companies which have not yet made use of export credit guarantees can benefit from state-backed cover when they wish to enter new markets or safeguard their business operations in an increasingly complex global environment.
Consultation begins – making the sector guidelines for the Federal Government’s Export Credit and Investment Guarantees more flexible
The climate policy requirements for the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees and investment guarantees are being further developed. The aim is to make them more flexible and simpler. In future, they will take greater account of technological developments and lessons learnt from practical application. As part of the review, the existing sector guidelines will be converted into a new format, the ‘transformation framework’. This is intended to make the regulations clearer and to continue to provide particular support for transformative technologies.
The background to this revision is the agreement reached by the coalition parliamentary groups to make the climate policy sector guidelines more flexible. Furthermore, it was already envisaged when they were first introduced that the regulations would be reviewed regularly and adapted to new developments.
Take part in the consultation now
With the launch of the consultation, companies, associations and other stakeholders in the export credit and investment guarantees sectors are invited to submit comments on the draft Transformation Framework.
If you would like to take part in the consultation, please contact the Climate Team. Comments may be submitted until 9 October 2026.
Please note: All comments received will be published on the export credit guarantees website once the consultation has concluded.
Information webinar on the transformation framework
To accompany the consultation, the Federal Government’s appointed representatives, Euler Hermes AG and PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH, will present the planned changes in an information webinar on 18 September 2026. If you are interested, please register via the following link:
The Climate Team is available to answer any queries you may have.
More financing partners for greater export opportunities – recognition of foreign banks
Successful export business requires strong financing partners. That is why, from September 2026, foreign banks will have greater opportunities to benefit from export credit guarantees and thus to provide financing backed by the German government. The aim is to broaden the pool of potential financiers and thereby open up additional financing options for German exporters.
New opportunities for local export financing
In future, regional and local banks will be able to be more easily integrated as financing partners in government-backed financing schemes. It is precisely these banks that are becoming increasingly important in many target markets. They have established networks, know their local customers well and often finance smaller investment projects as well. It is precisely these so-called ‘small-ticket transactions’ – that is, transactions with a comparatively low order or financing volume – that offer German exporters important sales opportunities.
This broadens the pool of potential financiers and facilitates access to financing solutions, particularly for smaller projects in key target markets.
Recognition to be simpler and more forward-looking in future
Another new development is the option to recognise banks as cover providers even before a specific transaction has been finalised. This allows financing partners to be identified at an early stage and financing to be arranged more quickly.
More opportunities for German exporters
This modernisation lays the foundations for a broader network of financiers worldwide. This will particularly benefit exporters seeking to tap into new markets or successfully implement smaller projects. More financing partners and streamlined processes will help to implement international projects more quickly and efficiently.
The German Pavilion and Export Credit Guarantees: From trade fair contacts to export business
Tapping into new markets and getting to know potential customers on the ground – for many small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) , international trade fairs are the most important way to open doors. However, organising one’s own trade fair stand abroad often involves considerable organisational and financial effort. This is precisely where the German Pavilion supports exporting companies.
As part of the Federal Government’s overseas trade fair programme, German companies can exhibit together at international trade fairs under the umbrella brand ‘made in Germany’. In 2026 alone, joint stands are planned at trade fairs in over 50 countries – the programme currently comprises a total of 844 trade fair participations.
The benefits:
- A professionally organised joint stand under the ‘made in Germany’ umbrella brand
- Financially attractive terms of participation
- Comprehensive support for the trade fair presence from experienced organising companies both in Germany and on site
For SMEs in particular, the German Pavilion thus offers comparatively easy access to international markets. They can showcase their products and services on site, meet new customers and business partners, and explore market potential. Participation in the trade fair can serve as a starting point for entering a new market or further diversifying international business.
When a trade fair contact turns into an export deal
What happens if that initial contact leads to a concrete order? This often raises new questions: How can the risk of non-payment be mitigated? What payment terms can be offered to the customer? And how can the deal be financed?
This is where the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees can be relevant. They protect German exporters against economic and political risks and enable attractive payment and financing arrangements, which often make an export deal feasible in the first place.
The German Pavilion and the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees thus come into play at different, but closely successive, stages of international business. Whilst the German Pavilion supports market entry and the establishment of new business relationships, the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees can help to ensure that the resulting transactions are carried out securely and are financially viable.
Strengthening the links between schemes for the promotion of foreign trade
The integration of the German Pavilion and export credit guarantees is intended to demonstrate to companies in the early stages of sales that the Federal Government is also a partner to the German business community in realising export deals and securing the associated financing.
If a concrete business opportunity arises from a contact made at a trade fair, our business advisers are on hand as personal points of contact right from the start. They provide individual support to German companies as they develop their export business further and highlight the specific covering and financing options available. This allows risks, payment terms and financing issues to be taken into account at an early stage, and suitable solutions to be developed jointly.
Are you planning to enter a new market or would you like to present your company at an international trade fair? You can find an overview of the German Pavilion’s current trade fair participations and the opportunities for participation via the link below:
Meet us in person: Export finance – face-to-face discussions in Berlin and Dresden
InnoTrans 2026: Arrange meetings in Berlin
On 22 and 23 September 2026, Manuel Dircks (Head of the Transport Department) and Noemi Jaekel (Underwriting, Maritime & Rail Unit) will be in Berlin and look forward to engaging with companies from the rail, infrastructure and mobility sectors. InnoTrans is regarded as the world’s leading trade fair for transport technology and mobility. The focus is on topics such as rail vehicles, rail infrastructure, digitalisation and the mobility of the future. For many companies in these sectors, export credit guarantees are a key component in financing and securing international projects. Political and economic risks can play a decisive role, particularly in long-term supply and infrastructure projects. This is where the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees help to open up markets and put business deals on a reliable footing. They also help to reduce the financing costs for such projects.
Take the opportunity to speak directly with our experts and ask specific questions about your projects, planned export ventures or any other queries regarding export credit guarantees.
Book a personalised meeting today for InnoTrans 2026. We look forward to meeting you in person in Berlin: Book a personalised meeting
Further information about the trade fair can be found via the following link on the website:
17th Central German Export Day in Dresden: An opportunity for face-to-face discussions
On 23 September 2026, the Central German foreign trade sector will gather in Dresden for the 17th Central German Export Day. Under the theme ‘A new mix for the global market’, the event will focus on current challenges and opportunities in international business.
Those who are already active internationally or wish to tap into new overseas markets can obtain targeted information and network at the event. Thirty experts from the network of German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs) will be available for one-to-one discussions on various target markets. The programme is complemented by country experts from the Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHKs) for Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as specialist exhibitors offering solutions ranging from market research and compliance issues to financing.
The conference programme also focuses on current developments that directly impact international business, such as global market disruptions, the effects of US tariff policy and geopolitical tensions. Experts from the worlds of business and foreign trade will provide insights and discuss how companies can navigate the changing landscape of international business.
René Auf der Landwehr, a business consultant specialising in the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees, will also be in attendance and looks forward to speaking with you in person. Take this opportunity to discuss your questions regarding the protection and financing of export transactions directly with him.
Are you planning a specific export transaction, looking to tap into new markets, or simply keen to find out more about the possibilities offered by government export credit guarantees? Then make the most of Export Day for a one-to-one discussion – and it’s best to arrange an meeting with René Auf der Landwehr. Alternatively, appointments can be booked directly via the event page for the Central German Export Day.
Information about the event and free registration can be found on the website:
Investment Guarantees remain in demand: the Federal Government supports German companies in challenging markets
German companies continue to invest in new markets worldwide, despite a challenging geopolitical environment. The 2026 interim report on the Federal Government’s Investment Guarantees, which has now been published, shows that companies are taking targeted steps to protect themselves against political risks, particularly in times of growing uncertainty.
In the first half of 2026, the Federal Government underwrote Investment Guarantees totalling 0.4 billion euros. Projects in South and Central America were in particularly high demand, accounting for 40 per cent of the newly underwritten guarantee volume. The top destination countries were Argentina, Ukraine and China. In terms of the number of approved applications, Ukraine ranked first, followed by Serbia and Taiwan.
The figures illustrate why Investment Guarantees are a key component of many companies’ internationalisation strategies. They protect German investors against political risks such as war, civil unrest, expropriation or restrictions on capital transfers, thereby providing greater planning certainty for long-term foreign investments. In addition to indemnification in the event of a loss, companies also benefit from political support from the Federal Government, which can help to prevent losses even before they occur. At the same time, Investment Guarantees can facilitate the financing of projects, as they are recognised as valuable collateral.
Another focus was on the target markets of the diversification strategy. Improved cover terms were offered for investments in India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Türkiye, Serbia, Tunisia and Argentina in the first half of 2026. This opens up additional opportunities for companies to tap into new sales and procurement markets and to broaden the scope of their international activities.
The high level of participation by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) also remains noteworthy: 41 per cent of the newly issued guarantees were for SMEs. This shows that Investment Guarantees are not only relevant for large corporations. They can be an effective tool, particularly for companies seeking to enter new markets or establish production and distribution sites abroad, to manage political risks and implement investment projects with greater certainty.
The new relief package is also likely to be attractive to companies. Since 1 August 2026, simplified assessment procedures and a more dialogue-oriented application process have ensured less bureaucracy and a more practical approach. This means that smaller investment projects in particular can be secured more quickly and easily. Further information on this is available in the article on the 2026 relief package for Investment Guarantees (DE).
Detailed figures and further insights into the development of Investment Guarantees in the first half of 2026 can be found in the latest 2026 interim report.
Sign up for the newsletter now.
Receive regular updates on the Federal Government’s export credit guarantees.
