Greenhouse gas accounts of the Export Credit Guarantee portfolio
Progress in aligning the ECG portfolio with the 1.5-degree target is measured through greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting. GHG accounts for projects in advanced economies shall be reduced to net zero by 2045, and for projects in developing and emerging economies by 2050.
Results 2025
As of December 31st, 2025, the use of goods and services covered by the federal government resulted in Scope 1 & 2 emissions of 25.5 million tonnes of CO2e for the year 2025. The amount of partially determined Scope 3 emissions for 2025 is 22.0 million tonnes of CO2e. This represents a reduction of 28 % and 24 %, respectively, from the baseline year 2022, when Scope 1 & 2 emissions were 35.6 million tonnes of CO2e, and Scope 3 emissions were 29 million tonnes of CO2e.
The intensity of Scope 1 & 2 emissions has decreased compared to the baseline year 2022. In 2025, one million euros of outstanding risk was associated with an average of 522 tonnes of CO2e, compared to 703 tonnes in 2022. The reduction is mainly due to an increase in the compensation risk in the renewable energy sector.
In 2025, renewable energy projects avoided emissions of 10.9 million tonnes of CO2e – a significant increase compared to the calculated 4.2 million tonnes of CO2e of avoided emissions in 2022. This increase is mainly because the outstanding risk related to renewable energy projects has more than doubledsince 2022.
Shares of the Key Sectors in the Total Emissions of the ECG Portfolio in the Years 2022 to 2025
The cover portfolio still consists mainly of transactions that were covered before the climate strategy came into effect. Overall, the relative emission shares per sector confirm the selection of key sectors for the climate strategy: more than 80% of emissions stem from transactions within the key sectors.
GHG Emissions, Emission Intensity, and Outstanding Risk by Key Sector of the Climate Strategy in the Reporting Years 2024 to 2025
| Compensation risk (€ billion) | Absolute Scope 1&2 Emissions | Emission intensity (Scope 1&2, t CO2e/mio. €) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 2024 | 2025 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
| Fossil energy | 6.5 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 20.9 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 3,195 | 2,808 | 3,251 | |
| Civil aviation | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1,246 | 971 | 996 | |
| Civil shipping | 14.4 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 194 | 178 | 151 | |
| Chemical industry | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 311 | 297 | 293 | |
| Metal | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 746 | 631 | 526 | |
| Other | 14.5 | 17.4 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 337 | 308 | 313 | |
| Total | 50.6 | 50.8 | 49.0 | 35.6 | 27.6 | 25.5 | 703 | 537 | 522 | |
The analysed compensation risk relates to the (residual) exposure of individual cover. This amounts to 61.9% of the total compensation risk of export credit guarantees in 2025. The total value also includes renewable energy transactions totaling EUR 10 billion (2025), EUR 8.2 billion (2024) and EUR 4.9 billion (2022). Greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1&2) from these transactions are assumed to be negligible (zero).
GHG Emissions Avoided by Renewable Energies in the Reporting Years 2024 to 2025
Outstanding risk (€ billion) Renewable Energy | Avoided emissions (Mt CO2e) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 2024 | 2025 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 | |
Total | 4.9 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 9.6 | 10.9 |
Methodology
The GHG accounts are calculated for all investment projects supported by single transaction guarantees. They capture the GHG emissions associated with the projects and the use of the goods and services covered by the federal government.
Currently, there is no international standard for calculating the portfolio emissions of a promotion instrument such as the ECG. Therefore, an approach for calculating the GHG emissions of the ECG portfolio was developed based on the recognised ‘Financed Emissions’ standard for banks defined by the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF). In September 2025, Euler Hermes joined PCAF on behalf of the German government's foreign trade promotion guarantee instruments.
In accordance with the PCAF standard, the federal government is allocated the project emissions of all coverages in the portfolio, in proportion to the share of the current outstanding risk relative to the total financing project value. For renewable energy projects, the PCAF standard also allows for the calculation and reporting of so-called avoided emissions. This is a hypothetical calculation of the emissions saved by replacing fossil-fuel generated energy.
The GHG accounts and the avoided emissions are calculated and published annually. The GHG accounts are determined by the emissions of the coverage portfolio as of December 31st of the respective reporting year.
Accounted Emissions
All significant greenhouse gases in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are considered. This includes both direct Scope 1 emissions and Scope 2 emissions from purchased energy for the covered projects. In addition, upstream Scope 3 emissions resulting from a project’s supply chain are also calculated. For projects involving the extraction, processing, transportation, and storage of fossil fuels, as well as for cruise ships, downstream Scope 3 emissions are also calculated.
The GHG accounting of ECGs follows a precautionary approach: For instance, from the moment a project is covered, full operational emissions are assumed, even if the covered facility only becomes operational later in time. In the absence of clear information on transactions, higher emission factors are chosen.
Data sources and data quality
In accordance with the OECD Common Approaches, all projects involving fossil fuel power plants or those with annual emissions exceeding 25,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) must calculate their GHG emissions. Where such emissions data or other project-specific GHG-relevant data (e.g. energy use) are available, they are used for the footprint calculation. Otherwise, emissions are determined using economic emission factors.
The use of various data and calculation approaches is in line with the PCAF standard.
The reporting data used is the data known at the time of GHG accounting. These may be delayed (e.g. using reported data from a project’s 2022 report year for the 2023 GHG calculation).
Baseline
The GHG accounts of the ECG portfolio were calculated for the first time in 2022. These results serve as a baseline against which future changes in emission levels can be measured. Scope 1 and 2 emissions form the baseline of the ECG climate strategy’s net zero target.
Should significant (> ±5 %) changes in data sources or the calculation approach become necessary in the future that have a significant impact on the results, the baseline would also be recalculated to ensure the results are comparable over time.
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